The US and Shadow Fleet
America, the Shadow Fleet, and the Great Power Struggle
Jaalle J. Rage Ali
1/8/20263 min read
The Shadow Fleet
A shadow fleet (or dark fleet) is a network of oil tankers operating covertly, mostly under different or false flags, outside the scope of international maritime surveillance. These vessels are used to circumvent international sanctions, particularly those imposed on countries like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. The shadow fleet is not owned by a single country, but rather is an economic and strategic system operating outside the bounds of international maritime law, with the aim of smuggling oil clandestinely to global markets.
Countries that Use the Shadow Fleet and How They Use It
Russia:
Russia is the largest user of a shadow fleet. After severe sanctions were imposed on its oil exports, Russia built or purchased hundreds of vessels that operate exclusively for oil exports. These vessels are often escorted by military or intelligence ships, change their flags, disable their Automatic Identification System (AIS), or impersonate foreign vessels. Russian oil is typically marketed in Asia.
Iran:
Iran maintains its own clandestine fleet, despite long-standing sanctions. Iran uses clandestine vessels to export its oil, particularly through key waterways like the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has repeatedly indicated it will retaliate if its ships are seized.
Venezuela:
Venezuela, whose economy is heavily reliant on oil, uses a clandestine fleet to export oil despite US sanctions. Many ships linked to Venezuela regularly change their flags, names, and registrations to evade international scrutiny.
Countries Benefiting from the Clandestine Fleet
China:
China is the biggest beneficiary of the clandestine fleet, although it does not use it directly. It buys cheap oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. This cheap oil helps China reduce its industrial and economic costs.
India:
India has become one of the largest buyers of Russian oil since the imposition of Western sanctions. It benefits from the lower prices of clandestine fleet oil, even as it tries to avoid direct political confrontation.
Other Countries:
Other countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America also benefit indirectly from clandestine fleet oil, especially those that cannot afford to buy it at high prices on the global market.
US Actions and Their Potential Repercussions
The United States has taken drastic measures to target the stealth fleet, particularly after tightening sanctions on Venezuela and Russia. The seizure of the Bella 1 (Marinera) was an indication of the US shift towards direct maritime action, rather than relying solely on economic sanctions.
The US claims that some of the ships fly false flags and do not belong to a legitimate government, thus justifying their seizure. These actions could escalate international tensions and threaten to transform maritime trade into a conflict between the great powers.
Potential Reactions from Russia, Iran, and China’s Influence
Russia:
Russia has threatened that if its ships are seized again, it will take similar action against US or allied vessels, especially in sensitive areas such as the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean. Russian officials have also stated that US warships could be targeted if the situation worsens.
Iran:
Iran is situated at a strategic crossroads—the Strait of Hormuz. Historically, Iran has demonstrated its ability to seize other vessels in retaliation for the seizure of an oil tanker. This could directly impact global oil markets.
China's Impact:
US actions against the Shadow Flotilla will directly affect China, given its access to cheap oil. China has two options:
1. Remain silent and seek alternative oil sources.
2. Respond politically or economically to the US actions.
Neither option is predictable, but China is certainly displeased with the US campaign against the Shadow Flotilla.
Conclusion:
The Shadow Flotilla has become a focal point for economic, political, and security conflicts among major powers. US actions, the reactions of Russia and Iran, and the economic interests of China, India, and other countries could make the international waters a dangerous arena where unprecedented major conflicts might erupt.
